Thursday, May 19, 2005

Using Control Charts to predict number of potential customers


Posted by Hello

Here a Region of a national house-building company are using process behaviour charts to understand the pattern of visits by potential customers to show home sites across the area.

Noteworthy are; (i) the two special cause signals of Easter and August Bank Hols; (ii) the apparent split of the pre-Easter/end of Winter period with the more promising spring/summer months; (iii) the otherwise stable pattern of visits with an average of just about 210 people each week, varying predictably between 126 and 293.

Any inclination by managers to get excited/depressed with the ups and downs of the numbers will be completely wasteful – this appears to be the natural variation of whatever system of house-buying is at work. If they want to increase the visitor numbers, they need to work on understanding what they need to do to intervene in this system and create an increase on a sustained basis.

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