The PRISM Blog

Deming’s Chain Reaction for the 21st Century? By Dave Kerr

2011-09-09T09:12:00.001+01:00

Pulling my reflections from earlier parts of this series ofarticles together, this kind of picture begins to emerge, one which might representa version of the Chain Reaction for modern times?

This is developing thinking – definitely not a finishedwork, and not detracting in any way from Deming’s original work.

I am hopeful that this, or some further development, willhelp to engage a wider audience – leading to a greater take up in practice –leading ultimately to a better quality of life for all.

What do you think?

Social Entrepreneurship and the Deming Chain Reaction - by Dave Kerr

2011-09-02T13:03:00.002+01:00

Recently I have been both encouraged & excited todiscover that, whether by design or accident, there appears to be an uncannyresemblance to a Universal Deming Chain Reaction/ Cycle in practice within whatappears to be referred to as the world of ‘Social Entrepreunership’

In the foreword of Tania Ellis’s book “The New Pioneers ”(Wiley 2010 ISBN 978-0-470-74842-8),Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder & Executive Director of the World EconomicForum, states that:

“The main idea is that leadership is meant toserve all stakeholders of a company – and, at a higher level, serve the globalcommunity. Leaders must act as the trustees for the long term prosperity of thecommunity.”

The book contains many specific examples of thisprinciple in play. One that particularly strikes me is the LifeStraw producedby a Swiss based Danish company, Vestergaard Frandsen, a textile business whichused to produce work uniforms but now specialises in disease control textiles& other innovative life saving products & concepts. The LifeStraw is a25cm long water filtration straw which – at a price of less than 6 dollars forgovernments or international relief organisations – can be used by a person forup to a whole year to turn most dirty water into safe drinking water!

Another interesting example comes from Blue Ventures,this year’s winner of the Buckminster Fuller Challenge (Blue Ventures & Buckminster FullerChallenge http://challenge.bfi.org/2011Finalist_BlueVentures). Byconnecting conservation with wealth creation (a good summary of the Chain Reaction?) Blue Ventures has found away to help fishing communities in the developing world experience acounter-intuitive reality: that saving fish doesn’t mean starvation, it meanssurviving & prospering!

One further example for the time being comes fromGlaxoSmithKline (GSK) as reported in the Independent on Monday 6^thJune 2011 (http://ind.pn/mm6DJa).

Commenting on the move by GSK to offer its Rotarixvaccine (a vaccine which prevents diarrhoel disease – a deadly bug responsiblefor the deaths of more than half a million children annually) to poor nationsfor £1.50 a dose rather than £30, Andrew Witty, chief executive of GSK wasreported as stating:

· The drug industry too often acts “as though it is detached from society.”

· “To be successful in the long term, we haveto operate in a way that is in step with society & its expectations.”

· This move is “not a gimmick or one off philanthropic gesture part of a concertedstrategy to change our business model.”

· “Specifically, we are aligning our commercialsuccess with doing what we can to tackle the healthcare needs of people in allcountries, including the poorest.”

In the final part 6 I will attempt to pull all thistogether.

A New Conversation for Quality Management | Quality Digest

2011-09-02T08:37:00.000+01:00

A New Conversation for Quality Management | Quality Digest:

'via Blog this'

Part 4 Presentation of the Deming Chain Reaction

2011-08-27T17:53:00.000+01:00

Whilst at a recent conference, where I made reference to the chain reaction, it occurred to me that a significant factor in the apparent low ‘take up’ in practice of the Deming Chain Reaction could be related to the way that it is still generally presented and described i.e. as a linear sequence in an almost explicit manufacturing context. I suspect that when it was first ‘developed’ this context & format were very appropriate/ relevant to the issues of the day e.g. post WW2 manufacturing & employment – but I wonder i this both potentially ‘undervalues’ & unintentionally limits its ‘take up’ in current practice? There appears to be a hint of this line of thinking in “Fourth Generation Management”. On page 23, describing the chain reaction, Brian Joiner writes:

“With his (Demings’) permission, we’ve added a final step to this chain: provide better return to investors.”

And potentially even more significantly goes on to say:

“And producing more with the same resources raises our standard of living”.

Reflecting particularly on this latter point, and in the light of some of today’s’ key issues e.g. quality of life, climate issues, stewardship of natural resources etc, causes me to wonder if a different form of presentation & wording might ‘open the door’ to a significantly greater application of the Chain Reaction. For instance I am wondering about:

· Presentation as a closed loop cycle – rather than an open linear sequence.

· Wording which is more readily related to a universal context – rather than a limited manufacturing organisational context. Some thoughts that are beginning to form:

o Starting point ;

§ ‘Understanding the real value needs of your ‘community of interest’.

o Costs decreased because:

§ Less pollutants ‘generated’.

§ Less wasted labour.

§ Less wasted creativity.

§ Less waste/ destruction of limited natural resources.

o Productivity improves:

§ Human.

§ Material.

§ Financial.

§ Ecological

o Outcomes including:

§ Jobs & more jobs.

§ Better quality of life.

§ Reduction in carbon emissions.

§ Conservation of natural resources.

§ Increased financial profit.

§ Better return to investors.

§ Increased ‘wealth’.

In part 5 we will briefly ‘visit’ the world of Social Entrepreneurship, hopefully to gain further useful insight

Part 3 Reflections on the Role of the Customer

2011-08-22T09:17:00.001+01:00

In the ‘Deming Dimension’ (SPC Press Inc 1990 ISBN 0-945320-08-6) Henry Neave introduces the chain reaction (page 33) with a reference to Quality Guideline 1 in an article by Joiner Associates “A Practical Approach to Quality”:

Quality Guideline 1: Quality Begins With Delighting the Customer.

“.... Your bosses may be ecstatic, the Board of Directors blissful and your company may be considered a legend on Wall Street. But if your customers are not delighted, you have not begun to achieve quality”.

Pretty direct wording – which I suggest is symptomatic of a strong belief that is an implicit fundamental of the chain reaction.

Whilst currently there are ‘shed loads’ of words and lots of activity around the importance of customers e.g. customer care initiatives, questionnaires, surveys etc, my experience as a customer is generally that reality comes nowhere near to me ‘being delighted’. I conclude from my experiences that in practice ‘delighting customers’ is not generally regarded as either the starting point for quality nor product/ service delivery. My personal experiences and observations, affirmed in conversations with others, strongly suggest that, in general:

· The actual prime focus in action is on ‘boss’ (I use this term in a VERY wide sense).

· ‘Quality’ is what we can ‘get away with’.

· Delighting the customer means we have gone too far – and given something away for nothing.

· The prime ‘aims in action’ are actually:

o Reduce cost.

o Sell more – of whatever you can manage to sell.

Regardless of the fact that I personally find the statements made by Tom Johnson & Brian Joiner (see part 1) both consistent & compelling, we are, however, still seemingly left with the reality that current practice does not, in general, appear to follow the Deming Chain Reaction. Maybe the way that the Deming Chain Reaction is presented may be a factor? This will be our focus in part 4

The Rule of 150 | Quality Digest

2011-08-16T05:48:00.000+01:00

The Rule of 150 | Quality Digest

Part 2 Reflections on the Deming Chain Reaction

2011-08-15T12:39:00.004+01:00

In his ‘seminal’ book ‘Out of the Crisis’(Cambridge 1982 ISBN 0-521-30553-5), Dr W Edwards Deming introduces the chain reaction on page 3:

“Management in some companies in Japan observed in 1948 & 1949 that improvement of quality begets naturally & inevitably improvement of productivity."

“... The chain reaction was on the blackboard of every meeting with top management in Japan from July 1950 onward...”

“... The production worker in Japan, as anywhere else in the world, always knew about this chain reaction; also that defects and faults that get into the hands of the customer loose the market and cost him his job.”

‘Flip’ back to page 2 and you will find a summary of the essence of the heart of the chain reaction:

“Improvement of quality transfers waste of man-hours and of machine time into the manufacture of good product and better service. The result is a chain reaction ....

(Authors note – Italics above are mine for emphasis, largely because they excite my current curiosity!).

When, as a manager in British Rail, I was first introduced to the chain reaction, like “the production worker in Japan, as anywhere else in the world,” it did indeed make intuitive sense – and still does. However, it did not, & in my experience generally still does not, appear to be common practice:

· Modern management thinking and practice does not generally appear to embody the belief that improvement of quality begets naturally & inevitably improvement of productivity.

· The chain reaction does not appear to be on the blackboard (aka powerpoint etc) of many if any top management meetings today.

If it really does make such intuitive sense to ‘production workers’ why does it not appear to make much/ any sense to modern management? Whilst there are undoubtedly very many contributory factors, my current reflections are ‘focussed’ around two particular issues:

1. What I regard & regularly experience as general ‘lip service’ paid to the role of customers.

2. The format, wording & context (manufacturing organisation) of the chain reaction as it is generally presented.

In part 3 we will explore some aspects of the role of the customer.

Reflections on Cost, Productivity, Value, Waste & Quality;Part 1 Value - the Prime Focus for Improvement

2011-08-08T12:28:00.005+01:00

There would appear to be general agreement that much of the current interest in waste and ‘lean’ is traceable back, in one way or another, to the Toyota Production System (TPS). In “The Toyota Way” (McGraw Hill ISBN 0-07-139231-9), on page 7 author Jeffrey Liker, introducing the TPS, quotes Taichi Ohno (the person credited as the originator of the TPS) as follows:

“All we are doing is looking at the time line from the moment the customer gives us an order to the point when we collect the cash. And we are reducing the time line by reducing the non-value-added wastes.”

In his November 2009 Quality World article ‘The Unnatural Environment”, Tom Johnson offers some profound insight into the focus of the TPS:

“So, if Toyota’s operations yield low costs and little waste, it is not because Toyota relentlessly strives to subtract parts. Instead, it is because the company’s constant focus on improving relationships among parts produces features such as direct, short connections & simple, unambiguous pathways without workarounds.”

In other words, the focus, or starting point if you like, of Toyota’s efforts is VALUE

not waste (aka cost). Waste (cost) reduction is a CONSEQUENCE of this focus on VALUE. This is congruent with Deming’s Chain Reaction (where ‘Improve Quality of Product and Service’ is synonymous with ‘Improve the added value for the customer’) – not a surprising fact given that Toyota ascribe much of their practice & success to the teachings of Dr Deming.

This highlights a subtle but very profound issue – there is a world of difference between a focus on ‘cost reduction’ (were most current efforts generally appear to start) & a focus on ‘adding value’.

In his book “Fourth Generation Management” (Mc-Graw-Hill Inc ISBN 0-07-03715-7) Brian Joiner shines further light on this issue. On page 23 he writes:

“What if we try to enter the Deming Chain Reaction at “Decrease Costs”? Or at “Return on investment?” Many companies have taken this route ... but it is doomed to failure. By starting at “Decrease Costs” instead of “Improve Quality”, they don’t eliminate the causes of the cost. One cost cutting drive therefore leads to further problems, which leads to another cost cutting drive. The situation spirals downwards.”

By looking at our own processes & systems with a focus on VALUE (as defined by the end customer) we are in effect ‘stepping into their shoes’ – a very good place to be since it is they who use (or not) our product & service!

In part 2 we will reflect a little more on the Deming Chain Reaction

How to Sustain Front Line Process Improvement Activities - Brad Power - Harvard Business Review

2011-08-05T14:07:00.000+01:00

How to Sustain Front Line Process Improvement Activities - Brad Power - Harvard Business Review

“Do nothing” – a sensible management strategy.

2011-07-29T16:48:00.000+01:00

I enjoyed a short article “Waiting as a change strategy” http://t.co/L0N7CUX by @markwfoden and it made me think about a phrase that often trips off my tongue: “Do nothing, at least in the first instance” is very often the right response for managers to events occurring in their companies.

I’m referring in particular to the way people typically react to performance data, though it also applies more generally in a conceptual sense. You can imagine the person compiling this month’s figures coming into your office saying ”You’re not going to like this, boss. We’re worse 9% on last month”. Then, in today’s high-pressure world, you feel yourself instinctively reacting with “well don’t just stand there, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!”

And the source of this panic-type reaction is that we are not generally taught about how numbers behave in the world of key performance indicators and understanding process capability. Most often the ups and downs of performance life are due to the natural variability of the process or system in question. Trouble is, by reacting in the manner described, the likelihood is that somebody will be found to blame for the downturn, or some immediate remedy is sought to ensure that the numbers will turn in the better direction next time. If the ups and downs are due to natural variation, then blame seeking and silver-bullet remedies will merely add to the waste already in the system. Indeed, it will make real improvement even more difficult as people seek to distort the numbers so that the witch-hunt is avoided next time.

On the other hand, with an understanding of natural variation and how to interpret the numbers using process behaviour charts, the instinctive managerial reaction changes dramatically. “Don’t just do something – STAND THERE!” And then in a rather softer tone – “Think about it. This month’s figure is within the range of variation we expect from this system. If it’s not as good we would like it to be, what do we have to do to work together to change the system of work and achieve the improvement we desire on a sustained and ongoing basis?”

This is an enormous change in management style, emanating from a much better understanding of statistics. “Do nothing” is a bit of a misnomer, I admit. Perhaps “Do nothing before engaging brain” would be more accurate. In fact, you’ll have already done something way before the monthly figures are out. You would have been using your process behaviour chart for months beforehand, and therefore have a powerful predictor of what the monthly (weekly/daily/hourly) figure is going to be so it’s unlikely to be a surprise.

And on the odd occasion when the number is outside the expected range of variation, you’ll be on-hand in real time to know for sure “Something has truly happened differently. Let’s go and find out what’s going on whilst the conditions that created the difference are likely to be still around.

You do not achieve cultural change by trying to change the culture

2011-07-28T12:52:00.002+01:00

I was inspired today by @flowchainsensei’s tweet "You do not achieve cultural change by trying to change the culture." Which strangely enough is attributed to Francis Maude MP.

I think there is great truth in this statement. In my experience any attempt at culture change without simultaneous changes in the system of work will simply result in further demotivating staff, increasing stress and increasing waste. It is starting at completely the wrong end of cause and effect.

If you begin by examining the system of work, together with eliminating the overlay of traditional management predilections such as quotas, arbitrary targets, service agreements, and “just get on with it” – once people believe you are for real their levels of engagement and excitement go through the roof and culture change comes for free.

I was reminded of a story told by Peter Scholtes on p45 of “The Leader’s Handbook” (pscholtes.com/handbook) where he asked a client “What are your biggest problems?” “Morale” was their immediate and universal response. “I didn’t want to work on morale problems because they are symptoms of something else and working on them usually involves a lot of useless complaining. I got them to agree to defer working on this”.

Instead, Scholtes got the staff working on improving processes that impacted on customers. For example, they studied the core process with the aim of reducing downtime, and set up a series of subprojects to develop real solutions – for example looking at reducing the time spent waiting for parts.

“After six or eight weeks of involvement in such activities, I suggested at a meeting “Now let’s talk about the morale problem.” “What morale problem” they responded.

So the message is clear: change the wasteful and sometimes daft ways of working you currently have, involve the people who actually do the work, and you will gain an energized and more committed workforce into the bargain. If you like, a corollary of “you can’t motivate people, you can only stop demotivating them”.

Scott Adams has useful insight also. Famous mostly in his deriding of management, Adams offers something more positive in Chapter 26 of “The Dilbert Principle” with his “New Company Model:OA5”. His grand insight about company fundamentals is ““Companies with effective employees and good products usually do well”.

The prime aim of his new company model is “to make the employees as effective as possible, and so to get the best out of employees and make sure they leave work at five o’clock (hence OA5)”. He goes on “Most people are creative by nature and happy by default. It doesn’t seem that way because modern management is designed to squash those impulses. An OA5 company is designed to stay out of the way and let the good things happen”.

Overall he is saying “Put in place the culture for transformation – keep your people fresh, happy, and efficient, set a direction – and then stay out of the way”.

Whenever I hear an organisation say “We need culture change around here” I give a sigh and roll my eyes. Instead, let’s just get on with improving the system of work, eliminating wasteful management practices, and allow people their right to joy in work.

Are we losing interest in the Theory of Variation?

2011-07-26T17:04:00.001+01:00

Two very big organisations that I’m close to have made big changes in their approach to business improvement recently. Neither have said this in so many words, but their body language is proclaiming very loudly “Six Sigma is dead – long live lean”.

And is it my imagination, or has “Six Sigma” dropped out of common business language, whereas “Lean” is booming in management speak currently?

In the two organisations I refer to, Six Sigma is regarded as far too slow in achieving business change, and people spend far too long in the classroom away from the business. Lean is presented in a fast paced and exciting style over half the time, with focus absolutely on waste reduction.

One of the victims of this change is that managers are no longer taught about statistical variation and the use of Shewhart Control Charts. And, in my experience, this simply extends a condition that is widespread in UK management circles – that nobody knows about what to do with system or process performance data. People say they’ve never heard about Variation, or they’ve heard about it in college and never used it.

The typical management world is inhabited by Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), Service Level Agreements (SLAs), Targets to achieve (judged on a weekly or monthly basis), and Red Amber Green (RAG) status tables to highlight the miscreants. Unbeknown to people attempting to manage like this, they are almost certainly making things worse and adding waste, together with fear and stress to their staff.

People aren’t taught that the fact that this month is better than last month, or worse than the same month last year, might simply be down to the effects of Natural Variation in the system under study. In fact, the ups and downs of performance can only be understood by careful use of control charts (more usefully known as process behaviour charts) which determine statistically the capability of your system to deliver. They broadcast the message loud and clear that, almost always, it is only rational action on the system that brings about improvement.

This is a big breakthrough in changing management style. Instead of setting people against one another, trying to pass blame or take action to distort the system to give the illusion of achieving targets – understanding variation unites people in working together to improve process capability, engages their innate interest in their work, and liberates them from the shackles of the RAG.

I’m all for reducing waste in organisations – but I think by not teaching the Theory of Variation we are perpetuating the biggest waste of all, the prevailing style of management.

Organizational Sabotage - The Malpractice of Management By Objective by Ken Craddock & Kelly Allan

2011-07-11T10:25:00.000+01:00

Organizational Sabotage - The Malpractice of Management By Objective by Ken Craddock & Kelly Allan

Making What's Counted Count

2011-07-11T08:36:00.003+01:00

Making What's Counted Count by Ian Graham.

Knowing what data to collect is one thing; knowing how to interpret it is another. What is missing from many managers’ competence (and this includes managers at all levels up to the top) is knowledge of the Theory of Variation. Without this knowledge many managers can and do interpret data incorrectly – often and unknowingly using it as the basis for incorrect action. In addition, they do not have access to the powerful new levels of interpretation which knowledge of this theory brings. This paper sets out to explain in simple terms what this theory is and how it contrasts with the implicit theory we use today.

Managing Performance Improvement on the Railways

2011-07-08T08:43:00.002+01:00

Managing Performance Improvement on the Railways by Nigel Clements

Originally written in 2000 and last reviewed in 2005. Are things really still like this in the railway industry? Let us know!

The Perfect Target | inspguilfoyle

2011-07-06T20:33:00.000+01:00

The Perfect Target | inspguilfoyle

A View of Deming's Thinking in the Modern World

2011-07-05T18:38:00.001+01:00

A View of Deming's Thinking in the Modern World by Nigel Clements

Comparing the two Great Quality Gurus, Deming and Juran

2011-07-05T12:56:00.003+01:00

Comparing Deming and Juran by Nigel Clements

John Thackara's 2011 Buckminster Fuller Challenge keynote address.: Change Observer: Design Observer

2011-07-05T11:10:00.000+01:00

John Thackara's 2011 Buckminster Fuller Challenge keynote address.: Change Observer: Design Observer

Be Careful When Going to the Gemba — Lean Blog

2011-06-30T13:52:00.000+01:00

Be Careful When Going to the Gemba — Lean Blog

Deming, Scholtes and the "Inspirational Petunia" Strategy of Leadership by Emma Langman

2011-06-30T09:26:00.000+01:00

Deming, Scholtes and the "Inspirational Petunia" Strategy of Leadership by Emma Langman

Why "Conforming to Spec" Isn't Enough by Nigel Clements

2011-06-29T15:07:00.000+01:00

Why "Conforming to Spec" Isn't Enough by Nigel Clements

Government Targets - the start of the wane?

2008-06-03T10:16:00.002+01:00

Four police forces have begun rejecting centrally imposed government targets in the way they police their respective area, in favour of more discretion for the front line officers. David Boyle's article in the Guardian

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/david_boyle/2008/06/crunch_time_for_numbers.html

says "It is also an emperor's new clothes moment for government targets: if you deny their existence, they lose their power. Whole swaths of the public sector - and local government in particular - will now be emboldened to go the same way."

So is the tide starting to turn against the edifice of arbitrary targets from government and the undoubted damage they cause to innovation, imagination, and professionalism of the people who deliver public services in this country?

Have they got targets for how well they are meeting their targets?

2008-05-09T14:51:00.004+01:00

The Mid Devon Star reports "PERFORMANCE at Mid Devon District Council is improving, a new report shows. Figures going before members of the authority's executive committee on Thursday show 58 out of 80 'best value performance indicators' are on target, above target, or well above target.The remaining 22 are below or well below target. The report states that over the last 12 months, 37 of the indicators have improved. It adds: "Of concern are those below target showing no improvement."

This means that only 72% of their BVPIs are on or above target. Surely they should be aiming for 90 or 95%!? And it means that 28% of their performance indicators are below target. And that only 46% have shown improvement.

The article goes on to report on one of those above target "The percentage of council tax collected - 98.5% against a target of 98%. Next year's target is 97%". So next year's target has reduced from this year's. So that's a relief.

You can bet your bottom dollar that lots and lots of management time is being wasted playing the performance against targets game, as opposed to examining how council services get delivered and actually working on real improvement.

You can read the full article at http://www.middevonstar.co.uk/display.var.2256782.0.council_performance_improving.php

HOSPITAL STAFF REWARDED WITH £25 VOUCHERS

2008-05-07T12:57:00.002+01:00

The "Exeter Express & Echo" carried this story about how thousands of staff at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital have been given Marks and Spencer's vouchers as a bonus for reaching it's targets. It's been criticised by someone from the Tax Payers Alliance. But I wonder how the staff themselves feel about it. Do they feel "Great - at last I'm getting something from this organisation to say thank you for all the hard work I put in that helps them meet their targets"?
Or do they think "What a waste of money! - Why don't they put this money towards something that is going to make my job easier and help me care for patients better? Then I would get more satisfaction and joy from the work I do"?

One reader commented on the article "i have been employed by the nhs trust for many years i earn my living by working for the nurse bank and i and all other nurse bank nurses did NOT get any sure gesture or even a kind word and the reason being nobody knows so not every one employed by the trust got the £25.00 as stated in your news paper today".

The article starts "Thousands of staff at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital have been given Marks and Spencer's vouchers as a bonus, the Echo can reveal.The board of the RD and E NHS Foundation Trust has presented each of its 5,250 members of staff a £25 gift as a thank you for reaching its targets. But the gifts, which total £131,250 of taxpayers' money, have been criticised by Mark Wallace, campaign director for the Tax Payers' Alliance.He said: "It's remarkable that the trust feels it has so much money that it can afford to just give it away."While just over £100,000 might not seem much to someone running a budget in the hundreds of millions of pounds, it is a reasonable amount to someone who is waiting for a hip replacement or for an urgently needed course of treatment."This money could undoubtedly have been spent on urgent cases elsewhere."Mr Wallace said that while it was good to reward people for doing their job, there had been salary increases over the years."

The full article at http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=136993&command=displayContent&sourceNode=231418&home=yes&more_nodeId1=137002&contentPK=20546107#views

How Police Plan to cut crime - they won't count vandalism

2008-05-07T12:26:00.002+01:00

Everyday in the newspapers there are examples of people distorting the (so-called) performance data they are judged (rewarded and punished) upon to give the illusion of achieving targets imposed upon them by government. This sort of effect has been pointed out to those in authority time and time again over the years, and yet for some reason it continues. When will they realise that this is simply getting in the way of people working together to get some genuine improvement going?

"Police officers are being ordered not to record criminal damage as crime.
A leaked memo has revealed that rank-and-file officers in the Norfolk force have been told that incidents such as car vandalism should not be classed as an offence when there is "no idea how it happened".
The disclosure brought accusations last Details of the policy emerged in the memo from an inspector in Norwich, which said that one of this year's targets was to "keep recorded crime down to 1,500". It is believed the inspector was referring to a sector of the city.
It added: "We appear to be making things difficult for ourselves by 'criming' things which aren't actually crimes.
"One example is where a car window is found to be damaged, no entry to vehicle, no witnesses and no idea how it happened.
"This has been recorded as criminal damage, even though there is no evidence to suggest it fits the definition. If there is no evidence of someone intending to destroy or be reckless then there is no crime."
The memo added: "Please ask yourself if there is evidence of a crime or if it is more appropriate to deal with it in a different way." night that the force is trying to massage crime figures by ignoring acts of vandalism. "

You can read the full article at http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23482482-details/How+police+plan+to+cut+crime:+They+won't+count+vandalism/article.do

Red Beads sank the Titanic

2008-04-24T15:12:00.004+01:00

Red Beads crept into the raw materials of the White bead company because of cost cutting by the management team - procurement were given a target to reduce materials costs by 20%, which they achieved quite easily by demanding a price cut from suppliers.
But of course this move was made by silo thinkers, not systems thinkers - as the overall effect on the wider system was disastrous, the company lost customers and workers lost their jobs.

A new study by scientists (Guardian 16th April 2008) suggests that the root cause of the sinking of the Titanic might have been "second rate rivets". Apparently Harland and Woolf was under pressure to obtain enough iron to make 3 millions rivets to hold the ship toghether. There was a rush to beat competition from Cunard, and the upshot was a vessel made using substandard materials. The authors claim that "a shortage of available top-quality iron and of the skills to make the rivets came to a head at precisely the time of the Titanic's construction. The board was in crisis mode.....In every meeting people would say "There are problems with the rivets and we need to hire more people". They contend that the shipyard dealt with the shortages by using a grade down from the best-quality iron.

When the Titanic struck the iceberg, by design it should have stayed afloat. But so many of the rivets popped along the starboard side of the ship that too many of the sealed compartments flooded leading to more than 1500 deaths.

What is the aim of the tax system?

2006-09-08T09:35:00.000+01:00

I was reading an article by Polly Toynbee recently about inheritance tax, the argument being about it being a tax on already taxed income, that people have worked hard through their lives to accumulate and the evil tax man is preventing them from giving their children a nest egg, versus a tax on the rich that hardly anyone (with a bit of advance planning) will have to pay anyway.

Which started me thinking – what is the aim of the tax system?
1. Is it a means of redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor? Toynbee says; “The top 1% of the population owns 23% of everything. The bottom 50% owns just 6%. If you take homes out of the equation, then the top 1% owns 63% of everything – the bottom half just 1%”. But if you take this aim to the extreme, then the tendency of really rich people to leave the country, and rob the tax system of their money altogether presumably increases.
2. Is it to fund public services and the political ideology of the ruling party? The current government appear to be pumping more money than ever into the political football called the NHS, yet don’t appear to be getting the results that such a large injection of cash warrants – some hospitals are in big deficit and laying off staff despite the money injection – some student nurses appear to be qualifying and then unable to find jobs. The whole system seems out of kilter, perhaps because of the relative short time between elections meaning money gets pumped in quickly without the real long term thinking required to make effective and efficient use of the cash.
3. Is it to drive our behaviour in certain directions? For example, “green” taxes. Toynbee writes: “Petrol taxes would have to be raised by 18p a litre or airline ticket taxes quadrupled (to replace inheritance tax). These might sound greenly desirable, but they would hit the least well off drivers hardest and those who use budget airlines…… (And) the main problem is that if green taxes had a deterrent effect, then the tax take would fall and other sources of income have to be found.

So, I suppose you drive your tax policy in the direction of whichever aim suits your political view. And, like many systems, there are conflicts to be considered between differing aims that have to be balanced and optimised, so far as they can be.

Leaner - A380 or Dreamliner?

2006-09-06T09:53:00.000+01:00

I see the A380 Airbus is claiming to be greener by transporting huge numbers of people (up to 800) between airport hubs, and people making "spoke" onward journeys by smaller aircraft or other modes. The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is smaller 290 passengers, but it is claiming better green credentials in terms of litres of fuel useage per 100 passenger km, and also that it will fly people direct to the local airport, rather than the hub and spoke.

The "which is greener" debate will continue, but which is leaner? The A380 is effectively batching people and incurring waste at the hub airports (Boeing estimates that between 30% and 50% of all traffic at hub airports is just passing through, and adding to the already congested operation at such places) - whereas the Dreamliner model sees fewer delays as people travel directly to a point much closer to their ultimate destination.

Royal Mail - Junk Mail and Customer Service

2006-08-30T16:40:00.000+01:00

So a postman with the Royal Mail has been suspended for telling customers how they can avoid receiving non-addressed junk mail such as adverts and money-off coupons for the local Pizzeria.

Why have they done that? It's a piece of received wisdom that no-one likes receving junk mail, so surely the Postman was just doing a piece of thoughtful customer service?

On the other hand, the Direct Mail industry tells us that this sort of junk mail actually works, and delivers a relatively high take up of offers amongst recipients. We actually use the money-off coupons. So our behaviour as customers would seem to tell a different tale from what we say?

And of course, this form of mail is quite lucrative to the Royal Mail, and subsidises them to keep delivering first class letters for 32p. Without it, the Royal Mail would go down the pan, or letters would be more expensive. Interesting example of customer behaviour and a systems thinking issue.

What is the Aim of the Post Office?

2006-08-15T17:37:00.000+01:00

I signed a petition recently complaining to the government about the various threats to local post offices. I was pleasantly surprised to receive a letter from my MP confirming that he had presented the petition in Parliament, and attaching a copy of the Hansard record.

It started me thinking about “What is the Aim or Purpose of the Post Office in the Modern World?”

I suppose its purpose in years gone by was to provide access to the postal system, and to be an agency for all sort of public services – TV licenses, Road tax, pension and benefit cash payments and so on. And I suppose the modern world has come along to multiply significantly the means by which such services can be accessed: email and telephone, competing carriers, multiple outlets for stamps, PayPoints for bill payment, direct debit, and of course the internet.

Opponents of Post Office closures will, I guess, point to the social benefits of the network; access for some people (perhaps older, perhaps less well off, perhaps otherwise less able) who may be left unable to source cash and other services; a place at the heart of the community where people meet especially in rural areas; also in rural areas provides the core around which the business of a rural shop might revolve.

So does that mean that the real remaining purpose for the Post Office is solely to provide such service for the otherwise disadvantaged? Or can the Post Office derive a new purpose for the 21st Century which makes it a dynamic business as opposed to a simple social service?

NHS at Bolton - there's two sides to every story

2006-07-31T21:03:00.000+01:00

I've received some anonymous comments on the NHS Bolton/Toyota story - I think they're worth Blogging as they show that there are at least two sides to every story!

Anonymous comment 1

Superbug cases at hospital soar by nearly halfBy Jane LavenderTHE number of people infected with a potentially deadly superbug at the Royal Bolton Hospital has gone up by nearly half.Rates of Clostridium Difficile, which can cause severe diarrhoea and is especially dangerous to the elderly, have increased from 208 in 2004 to 297 last year, according to Government statistics.And the number of people infected with MRSA, which is an infection in the blood, has also gone up from 17 between April and September last year, to 19 between October, 2005, and March this year. From April to September, 2004, there were just 14 cases.

Anonymous comment 2

17, 19, 14? Surely that's just variation

Anonymous comment 3

Threat of strike at cuts hospitalBy Jane LavenderUNION bosses at the Royal Bolton Hospital say they are prepared to hold a ballot on industrial action in a bid to protect patient services.Senior UNISON members say they are horrified at plans for £8 million worth of cuts at the hospital.

Anonymous comment 4

Like Toyota? They're having a laugh.

Anonymous comment 5

Well they can't take it down now can they. That would say even more.

NHS - 250 steps to discharge a patient!

2006-07-24T11:54:00.000+01:00

This picture appeared in The Times recently, showing that more than 250 different interactions took place to discharge a patient with complex health problems. With the NHS trying to adopt "lean", one process involving a routine blood sample was reduced from 309 steps to 57 with just simple changes.

They want to "improve service by better understanding how patient demand varies, and identifying and removing the valueless activities that create bottlenecks in the system.

Early results of a study in Bolton showed the lean method helped to cut by a third death rates for patients having hip operations, reduced paperwork in the trauma unit by 42%, and halved the amount of space needed by the pathology dept.

The Chief Executive of Bolton hospital trust said "When we started out, some people were very sceptical. But I've never seen anything that energises staff in this way".

The Government keep saying that the NHS must increase productivity and cut waste before they can justify more public funding. At least in this pilot study, hospital chiefs seem to have understood the new definition that Productivity = maximise customer satisfaction and eliminate waste and rework.

NHS - thinking like Toyota

2006-07-24T11:33:00.000+01:00

"Chief Executives of NHS Trusts vowed yesterday to adopt the techniques of Tesco and Toyota to save lives and reduce costs by introducing the principle of "lean" management pioneered by successful companies. By eliminating unnecessary processes, the NHS could speed a patient's progress from A&E to the operating theatre.......

The approach was tested in Bolton hospitals, where mortality rates were cut by at least a third after services were redesigned around the needs of patients instead of the convenience of staff.

(Guardian 15th June 2006)

Toyota or Toyoda?

2006-07-24T11:28:00.000+01:00

True or False?
Toyota changed its name from Toyoda in 1937 because when written in Japanese it not only looks better, but it only needs eight brush strokes - a lucky number in Japan.

(from Summer 2006 "If." - The Toyota magazine)

Well... is it true or false? Doesn't say. And I thought Seven was the Japanese lucky number!?

Call centre technology - steam driven

2006-07-24T10:29:00.000+01:00

I was watching an agent in a call centre of a mobile phone company. Lots of technology to help - information screens, agent script, extensive intranet, and so on. In a lull between call rushes, she switched to screening emails. Each email is assigned to a different "business stream", each of which have differing Service Level Agreements for responding to email. Her first action was to identify the Business Stream: then refer to a fairly dog-eared piece of paper sellotaped to her workstation, being a list of the "due by" number of days in which a response is promised; then she referred to her desk calendar and counted forward 10, 15, or 20 days according to the Business Stream and entered that date alongside the email on her screen; then she would allocate the email to the appropriate team for response.

No value added there then!

An Insight into one company’s changed culture because of SPC

2006-03-21T14:04:00.000Z

An Insight into one company’s changed culture because of SPC

Sample job - circulars editor

Before SPC
1. Manager decides improvement/change is required
2. Manager calls in Organisation and Methods Section to analyse job and recommend efficiencies
3. Manager introduces O&M staff to job holder
4. O&M ask job holder to record activity (number of circulars edited during 2-week period)
5. O&M observe jobholder in action (job holder anxious to impress, does not like to be seen to be 'slow')
6. O&M analyse stats of 2 week activity period and compare with observations
7. O&M draw conclusion that even allowing for 'difficult' tasks and unspecified 'down time' jobholder can achieve an average of 'X' editing jobs per day.
8. Jobholder recognises this is 20% to 50% more than currently achieved
9. Manager receives report
10. Manager suggests that jobholder provides a report and strategy for achieving this projected average turnover (this is called empowerment and 'ownership), timescale 2 days
11. Jobholder works late and at the weekend to come up with a scheme which might work.
12. Manager says "excellent! - that can go on your objectives for the rest of the year"
13. Jobholder gets depressed
14. Jobholder works longer hours to achieve 90 % of target by year end
15. Manager understands the difficulties jobholder experienced and only reduces potential bonus by 5%
16. Jobholder resolves to look for another job

The SPC way
1. Data capture - at several points in the life of the document
2. Control charts identify whether process is stable/non-stable and whether particular 'jobs' cause atypical action times
3. Process maps (deployed style)
4. Periods of delay and inactivity in the life of the document identified
5. Further investigation to understand "the voice of the process"
6. Process changes proposed and studied - and piloted
7. Further process changes proposed and implemented
8. Data capture continues
9. Control charts indicate improvement or otherwise
10. Manager involved throughout
11. Jobholder 'comfortable' that improvements are genuine and sustainable
12. Agreed Objective is to follow and implement the Improvement Statement
13. Jobholder and Manager spend much time persuading others that the Objective is SMART
14. The process is improved and the jobholder goes home at nights!!

The most important figures are unknown or unknowable

2006-03-16T10:31:00.000Z

One of Deming's paradoxical quotes is "the most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable. David Walker picked up this point recently in the Guardian with an article about how difficult it is to measure productivity in the service sector. For example (in the NHS) "measuring the cost is a damn sight easier than evaluating the output. Just counting the number of patients a consulant sees gives no scope for assessing the quality of the episode or illustrating the improvement that might result, in the long run, in their lives"
It's a problem in policing, too. "Officers on patrol are very unlikely to spot or stop a crime, which makes their productivity seem unimpressive. But a glimpse of a patrolling officer is highly valued by members of the public. They might still feel good even if they registered the "unproductiveness" of the officer in terms of detection of criminals.
Deming lists "Running a company on visible figures alone" as one of the Deadly Diseases of Management. "A company may appear to be doing well, on the basis of visible figures, yet be going down the tubes for failure of the management to take heed of figures unknown and unknowable".

Infuriated by BT automated-answer so-called Customer Helpline?

2006-01-10T17:35:00.000Z

Possibly one of the least customer-friendly things that big companies do these days is only offer automated answer facilities for customer helplines - "for so-and-so press 1, for something-else press 2...."

BT is one of the worst offenders in this respect, but a guy on Richard Hammond's 5 o'clock show today has found a way to beat it. If you dial 150, ignore what the woman says, and keep pressing the * (star) key in response each time she starts speaking - after six repetitions you beat the computer and actually get to talk to a human being.

So if enough customers do this, maybe BT will get the message about proper customer service!

The waste of customer delays at a Hilton Hotel

2006-01-10T17:25:00.000Z

Two of the "Seven Service wastes" are delay on the part of customers waiting for service, and opportunity lost to retain or win customers.

I experienced both of these at the Hilton Hotel off junction 15 of the M40 today. I was meeting a colleague and we both ordered a simple club sandwich for lunch. They took over an hour to arrive, and complaints on our part after 45 mins and 60 mins. Nobody bothered to come and explain about the delay, and complaints were met with "the hotel is busy today, sir".

Even worse, the hotel has implemented car park charges. We had to queue to get a ticket to exit the car park, the machine was not working properly - it was not accepting credit cards, and the ultimate insult was that the cumulative delays meant we were pushed into a higher charge band for using the car park.

We shall not be using Hilton Hotels again!

Toyota - they must be doing something right

2006-01-06T13:27:00.000Z

Toyota, so often held up as the very epitome of World Class organisations, must be doing something right. The Times 4th Jan 2006 reports that Toyota recently announced production forecasts that would push the company past General Motors to become the biggest car maker in the world.

And it's not only Toyota - Nissan and Honda have also achieved years of record profits.

And their success spreads through the supply chain. The same article says that there is a £3billion expansion drive to solidify the position of Japan's steelmakers ahead of Russia to be the world's greatest exporter of steel. In fact, Japan exports more than the US, Britain, China, and South Korea put together already.

Over the years, the fortunes of the Japanese steelmakers have ridden high on the success of the Japanese car industry. The Times says that the big steelmakers will be directing their big expansion plans towards Nagoya, the city where Toyota is based.

The finest employees? What do the people think?

2006-01-05T13:15:00.000Z

I couldn't resist taking this photo in the staff entrance lobby of a Marriott Hotel in California.
I wonder what the people who work there think of it? Is it exhortational and patronising? Or is there something happening there that means the people really believe it? And how does that show in the service given to customers?

Police crime numbers up - BCS crime numbers down!

2006-01-03T13:59:00.000Z

You only get the numbers that your data collection system is designed to deliver. And when making judgements about the figures, you have to bear in mind the context in which the data was collected. This extract is taken from an article published in The Guardian Oct 14th 2004.

“Michael Howard was complaining about the British Crime Survey. “The most reliable crime statistics, those recorded by the police – show that crime in England and Wales has risen by 850,000 in the past five years”, he claimed.

But police statistics bear little relation to the reality of crime trends. The BCS shows unequivocally that major types of crime have fallen dramatically since 1995; vehicle crime down by half; house burglary down by 47%; assault down by 43%; the list goes on.

Recorded crime has gone up because the police have changed the way they count crime. In 1998 the “counting rules” were changed. In 2002 a new national crime recording standard was introduced - they previously rejected victims’ reports of crime if they doubted them: under the new standard, these are taken at face value. Both changes inflated the numbers police looked at as recorded crime.

But statisticians have always known that only a proportion of crimes get reported to the police, and only a proportion of these find their way into police records. The BCS trend is simple, and quite different from the police numbers: people’s personal experience of crime rose from 1981 to 1995 and then fell back again to near 1981 levels. Violent crime involving firearms is rare but rising; e-crime is surging. But the headline trend for crimes that affect everyone’s daily lives is downward.

Attracting (?!) Customers to an MOT Garage

2005-12-31T15:34:00.000Z

All MOT garages are required to have a clearly marked area where customers can, if they wish, observe the test being carried out on their vehicle. This photo was taken at a garage in England. Would you like to sit in the chair?

Catch 22 targets - moving goalposts

2005-12-31T15:21:00.000Z

On the frontispiece to Joseph Heller's Catch 22:

"....Colonel Cathcart, who cares for nothing except keeping in well with his superiors. To do so, he continually increases the quota of missions his men must fly before being sent back home".

Do you know people who achieve, or nearly achieve, the targets set them by management, only to see them increased for the next month, quarter, or year "in the name of continual improvement, and to keep them motivated"?

Just when you think you've "got there"......!

Catch 22 - do people co-operate or do they compete?

2005-12-31T15:15:00.000Z

I've just started reading Joseph Heller's Catch 22 again. There's an interesting paragraph on the frontispiece:

"From now on I'm thinking only of me".

Major Danby replied indulgently with a superior smile: "But, Yossarian, suppose everyone felt that way?"

"Then", said Yossarian, "I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way, wouldn't I?"

Irish tax on carrier bags has unintended effect

2005-12-31T14:56:00.000Z

BBC's Countryfile recently featured a piece in which an interviewee claimed that the Irish Government's tax on the use of plastic carrier bags in supermarkets was actually having the opposite effect to that intended.

Meant as an environmental tax to try and reduce the amount of plastic going into landfill through one-time use of carrier bags, the claim was that previously many bags found subsequent use as liners to kitchen waste bins and the like. Apparently the new tax has made this use uneconomic, and so the sales of "pukka" bin liners has increased accordingly.

So a well-meaning intervention has had unintended consequences - a sharp reminder of the need for broad systems thinking in organisations and government.

No wonder the paper keeps falling off

2005-06-03T17:18:00.000+01:00

This is an excerpt from a chart of the width of rolls of paper being placed onto printing machines that are producing statements sent to customers.

The supervisor is concerned that variation in the width of the rolls is a cause of breakdown where the paper becomes parted from the tractor reels feeding the paper through.

He has carried out a small experiment measuring at randomised intervals along the roll. The shift in the data is very interesting, and represents different rolls. Not only do the rolls differ in average width, they are nominally supposed to be 440mm wide, so it appears the manufacturing process isn't centred. If this happens regularly, no wonder the paper feed keeps failing,

He resolved to work with the suppliers to reduce the variation between rolls, and therefore reduce the amount of printer downtime.

Confessions of a parking attendant

2005-06-03T16:25:00.000+01:00

BBC NEWS Magazine Confessions of a parking attendant: "Right from the classroom, the importance of PAs bringing in high numbers of tickets was stressed. For the new trainees to pass probation, their ticket issuing levels had to be at 1.65 per hour, which is about 10 every day.
I never reached that level and so failed my probation and got a verbal warning. Within the base there were 'leader boards' which listed all the tickets that each PA was getting.
We were divided into teams so if you were bringing back few tickets, like me, you were made to feel bad for letting the team down. Each ticket was �100, so a lot of money is being made by people parking illegally. "

A story of Parking attendants facing pressure to reach arbitrary targets to survive, stress levels ratcheted up with league tables and low wages. They find ways to cheat to give the illusion of achieving more tickets than was actually the case. And what is the purpose of the Parking Attendants? Is it to maximise revenue? Or is it to keep the streets free and flowing? And how does that drive behaviour?

Good control chart - shame about the trend line!

2005-06-02T16:53:00.000+01:00

I found this old chart today. It’s a monthly chart of percentage of incidents where a police force has responded to a 999 call within the target time allowed.

The run line tells a story in itself, but the chart is possibly more interesting for its misuse. Note how the person who constructed it has put in upper and lower control limits, but replaced the average line with a line of best fit trend!

Oh dear, oh dear……..

MicroManaging the cups and saucers

2005-05-23T11:50:00.001+01:00

Have you noticed how some big organisations micro-manage to an astonishing degree? I heard recently that one such organisation currently experiencing hard times, shedding staff whilst reorganising to “cut costs” couldn’t decide where to relocate the crockery used to serve refreshments in meetings.

In fact the final decision had to be delayed until the Regional Director returned from vacation. This in a company that is struggling to meet productivity targets, where managers report working long hours and weekends, and who are struggling to identify waste and non-value-adding work to eliminate.

Beating the Management system in Star Trek Voyager

2005-05-23T11:50:00.000+01:00

In a Star Trek Voyager episode, the Doctor is kidnapped and taken to a facility on an alien planet where he is required to carry out treatment as ordered.

The Top People on the planet get the best treatment and an allocation of sufficient drugs. Lower level people have only a very small allocation and so are generally just left to die.

The Doctor is ethically disgusted. He discovers that, for the top level, the allocation of drugs is based on usage during the previous month. If patients are cured, the allocation of drugs diminishes.

The Doctor discovers that if he lies about his cure rates, his drug allocation remains high, so he can use the surplus to treat the low level patients also.

PRISM Consultancy International : Training and Courses for Process Improvement

Using Control Charts to predict number of potential customers - Part Two

2005-05-19T11:39:00.000+01:00

In this control chart, managers are looking at the number of visitors to the show sites who have shown “more than a passing interest” in buying. This is subject to a good counting process with workable operational definitions, of course.

But comparing this chart with the previous Total visitors chart is interesting. The apparent winter/summer split is replicated, as is the special cause signal at Easter, but not so at August Bank Holiday. The summer system is more or less stable, with an average of 56 qualified prospects, varying predictably between 28 and 85.

So only around 1 in 4 of all visitors to show sites look like real potential customers. So is management trying to increase the total number of visitors to site? Or trying to improve the conversion process from what is known in the trade as a “carpet-treader” to genuinely interested prospects? It depends on their knowledge of the local situation, of course, but these are important questions that show that management is looking at the System, and not wasting their energy on the week-to-week vagaries of natural variation.

As a twist to the tale, management had a theory that increased spending on advertising at holiday time merely increased the total number of visitors to site, without a commensurate increase in nett visitors. So the following year, and with not a little trepidation, they did not spend additional money on holiday-time advertising. The result was as expected. The nett visitor numbers behaved exactly as they would have done with the advertising, and the Regional manager had saved £100,000 on the advertising budget which could be spent on other marketing experiments.

Using Control Charts to predict number of potential customers

2005-05-19T10:26:00.000+01:00

Here a Region of a national house-building company are using process behaviour charts to understand the pattern of visits by potential customers to show home sites across the area.

Noteworthy are; (i) the two special cause signals of Easter and August Bank Hols; (ii) the apparent split of the pre-Easter/end of Winter period with the more promising spring/summer months; (iii) the otherwise stable pattern of visits with an average of just about 210 people each week, varying predictably between 126 and 293.

Any inclination by managers to get excited/depressed with the ups and downs of the numbers will be completely wasteful – this appears to be the natural variation of whatever system of house-buying is at work. If they want to increase the visitor numbers, they need to work on understanding what they need to do to intervene in this system and create an increase on a sustained basis.

The Chancellor, Gambling, and Systems Thinking

2005-05-18T16:52:00.000+01:00

I saw this excerpt in the Guardian in March - sometimes even the Chancellor can see a System at work, and act accordingly so that everybody gains!

"Gordon Brown’s budget initiative to abolish betting taxes for punters has turned out to be a brilliant gamble, the National Audit Office reveals today.

The switch from a betting tax on punters to a tax on the profits of the bookmakers has led the three biggest firms……..to repatriate their offshore operations from places such as Gibraltar back to Britain, creating jobs.

Betting stakes … have quadrupled since the law was changed, and the value of bets has nearly doubled from £27bn to £53bn.

The change means the government gets much less money from individual bets, yet nearly all the revenue is recovered because punters place more of them.

MR BROWN DECIDED TO CHANGE THE SYSTEM after Customs and Excise predicted a huge drop in gambling duties because punters could avoid paying the tax by betting online. All the big operators set up offshore companies to compete with foreign rivals.

The change in the law meant it made no difference to punters where they placed their bets, and this has stemmed Treasury losses. "

Labour doesn't listen to its Customers

2005-05-11T11:38:00.000+01:00

Justine Greening - newly elected Tory MP for Putney gives an interesting perspective on Labour and the electorate in a Guardian interview (9th May).

"My economics background tells me that if the Labour Government was a company and ignored its customer, increasing its cost base as much as Labour have, shareholders would sack the directors. If it ignores people and increases their taxes........taxpayers deserve just as much consideration"

The cost and the value of performance data

2005-05-03T16:44:00.000+01:00

It certainly costs money to collect data about the performance of your assets and infrastructure. This, of course, should represent an investment, giving insight into what's going on, notice of possible problems ahead, and signals for improvement.

All too often, the accountants see the cost of this, but not the value - and it becomes an easy target for short term cost savings.

"Modern Railways" for May 2005 gives an example. The train company First Great Western is getting very worried about increasing numbers of speed restrictions on the routes they run on. Too much make-do-and-mend by Railtrack has left a huge backlog of work.

Also, the removal by Railtrack of a "proper monitoring system" has led to "regular embankment collapses" which now require massive works to stabilise and rectify.

"A stitch in time saves nine" - but of course you need the data capture facility to know where and when a stitch is necessary.

Newspapers - report elections or sway elections?

2005-05-03T16:03:00.000+01:00

"It was the Sun what won it" is an apochryphal newspaper headline from an election gone by. Today's Guardian carries a piece about tactical voting, urging readers to be sceptical about the extent that newspapers can influence their audience.

"Whenever tactical voting is mentioned, someone usually mentions the Observer polls of marginal seats in 1997, which are credited with helping to defeat a string of Conservative MPs, including Michael Portillo.

It was, it claimed, "the Obs what won it". Yet there is almost no evidence that these polls had any influence on the result.

The polls showed the Tories in deep trouble and heading for a string of defeats, and four days later, hey presto, that's what happened.

The Observer observed - it did not influence."

Some might say - the difference between enumerative and analytic studies.

Reportable Accidents and 2005 objective

2005-04-29T14:01:00.000+01:00

I came across this data recently, showing for company X monthly number of reportable accidents. The management team have set a challenging target for 30% reduction in 2005.

What do you think are the chances of this being achieved? What meaning does a target of 3.6 accidents per month have anyway?

Inland Revenue Cycle time too long

2005-04-29T09:43:00.000+01:00

Wednesday's Guardian "Notes and Queries" has a piece on the Inland Revenue, being a very good example of the benefits that reducing process cycle time could bring to both themselves and their customers.
First of all, the writer is complaining of receiving a demand for underpaid tax of 3p. The accountant's reply is that the Revenue don't actively seek payment of very small amounts - but they do have an automated system which sends out letters without anybody ever doing a sense check.
The other piece of Revenue nonsense is that the accountant routinely has clients' tax returns in by the Jan 31st deadline - they then have to spend the next three months reassuring clients who have received late payment notices. The problem is it takes far too much time for the Revenue to process the documents. This means that any document not processed by the deadline (even if in well before time) will automatically result in a penalty notice being issued.

Lichfield Canal Aqueduct - far-sighted management

2005-04-28T15:29:00.000+01:00

Motorists on the M6 Toll Road might be puzzled by this bridge over the motorway that is not connected at either end to anything else! It's a great example of a bit of foresight often lacking in modern society.

The Lichfield and Hatherton Canals Restoration Trust www.lhcrt.org.uk/aqueduct.htm are restoring the Lichfield Canal, but their plans were threatened by the new road.

Some neat planning ahead meant that the bridge was put in place whilst the motorway was being constructed - several years ahead of actual restoration of the canal, but saving vast sums when compared to what the cost might have been when the motorway was open - with all the disruption that would have ensued.

Even the direction of North varies

2005-04-26T13:07:00.000+01:00

BBC Midlands Today a few days ago featured a company making compasses. They showed amongst other things a sort of "Calibration Room" - a master compass used to check the accuracy of new compasses being made. It was built exclusively of non-ferrous material and other protective measures designed to exclude local conditions as far as possible from affecting the way the master compass works.

The Master Compass maker said that, despite all this, the measured position of North still varies, even on a daily basis, depending on a range of conditions including temperature and pressure.

There's no true value of anything!

Reduced variation in packing thatching straw

2005-04-26T05:39:00.000+01:00

BBC Countryfile on 16th April had a piece about cutting reeds in Norfolk for thatching. After cutting, the reeds would be placed into loose bundles before being manipulated into very tight bunches for tying off and transporting.

The expert demonstrated the process of creating the bunches, and then the BBC presenter had a go. The result was not unpredictable! The expert's bunch was very tight and almost cylindrical - one could have measured the radius of the cross-section and recorded the result. The presenter's bunch was much looser, and it was obvious that the radius of the cross-section was much greater.

So - increased experienced and increased skill produced a result with much less variation. More bunches could be transported for a given cubic capacity of vehicle, and so less waste, reduced cost.

Rover - the data speaks volumes

2005-04-25T13:39:00.000+01:00

The Birmingham Post reported on Friday that Sir Digby Jones, Director General of the CBI, made a speech highlighting the following figures;

Nissan in Sunderland makes 300,000 cars each year with 3,000 employees.
Toyota at Burnaston makes 200,000 cars each year with 2,000 employees.
MG Rover was making 150,000 cars with 6,000 employees.

The data speaks.......

Taxation and Systems Thinking!

2005-04-25T10:19:00.000+01:00

Taxation comes up often as an issue in the General Election Campaign. Student top up fees and tuition fees, for example. Surely students are destined to earn higher salaries than most once they get good jobs, and so should be expected to pay back at least some of the costs of their education?
Charles Kennedy must be a Systems Thinker, though. He said in an interview; "I am a graduate, and so are the doctors and many of the nurses who looked after my wife when she was giving birth to our new baby. Even if I was a non-graduate, I would be pleased to know that some of my taxes have gone to pay for these people to get the best knowledge and training they can so that they can look after my family and bring my first child safely into the world".
And of course, graduates will pay back more in taxes anyway because they will be more likely to be in the top-rate band of tax.

Another example is the Council tax. Why should I pay (as a child-free person) to educate other people's children? They chose to have them, surely they should pay for the consequence of that decision? Again, this ignores the true value of education. A Systems Thinker would say, yes, but educated people are likely to benefit the economy more, and ultimately pay for the wider range of public services everyone benefits from, including the state pension, for example. And there is much evidence to say that educated people are less likely to commit crime, meaning a safer world for everyone.

Taxation is an issue that can only be sensibly viewed from the perspective of the wider system, and with broad agreement on the Aim of the System.

Six Sigma's too slow!

2005-04-21T16:25:00.000+01:00

This is an excerpt from an email I received recently from someone engaged in a Six Sigma project in a large British organisation;

"Six sigma is alive and well - but takes too long. I prefer shorter projects. Our project on xxxxx is a good example. We started it Jan 04 (it's now April 05) - we are in the middle of Improve phase!. As there has been so many changes to the xxxx plan since we started if we fix what was in our original scope we may not see a great improvement as something else now has become broken. And new things can not be added into the project at this stage - they must be treated as a new project entirely. It is not flexible to reflect the changing nature of (our service)

Overcrowded trains at Telford

2005-04-20T11:24:00.000+01:00

Do Arriva Trains Wales appreciate the problems they cause when they provided inadequate amounts or types of rolling stock on their trains? On Monday this week, 18th April - the 0825 Shrewsbury-Birmingham, normally a reasonably adequate Class 158 Unit, was formed by a two-car Class 150. These are normally suburban trains, (really the seating is too narrow and uncomfortable even to carry that description) but a whole hour in those cramped uncomfortable seats (not even enough room to turn the page of a newspaper) is really not on.

And at least by joining at Shrewsbury I was able to get a seat - there were a large number of passengers joining at Telford who were forced to stand for the entire journey. Probably the train company response would be "the alternative would be to cancel the train".

But do company bosses get out and about to experience at first hand the consequence of failure to provide?

Hot air dryers and paper towels

2005-04-20T08:57:00.000+01:00

Has anyone done a study of the relative usage of paper towels and hot air dryers in hotel and workplace loos? I dislike hot air dryers - they never seem to dry my hands properly, and I much prefer to use paper towels. Where there is only a hot air dryer provided, there always seems to be a sticker saying "This is more hygienic than paper towels, and it reduces the amount of litter caused". Do they really mean "This is cheaper to provide than paper towels, and we don't have to empty the waste bins" - whilst leaving users having to complete the drying process with their pocket handkerchief?

Would a study of relative usage reveal that customers prefer the paper towels?